A Fred Thompson Candidacy?

News has spread about Fred Thompson forming a presidential committe, the first step in exploring a bid to the white house. What chance does he have at winning the Republican Nomination? Well thats a very interesting question.

In the latest Gallup Poll (http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=17785), Thompson was polling at 12% without even formally entering the race. Thats above, but within the margin, of Mitt Romney. Romney spent nearly $12 million dollars. Thompson hasn't spent anything. Thats really very impressive.

Name Recognition is also a key part of Thompson's chances to win the nomination. Thompson is a character on Law and Order, as basically every single article has mentioned. Even before taking this first step at a presidential bid, Thompson was being written about by Political writers at the NY Times and the Washington Post as a possible conservative candidate. He was appointed by President Bush to guide the nomination of John Roberts. So hes stayed active in politics, and the media was covering his campagin before it even existed.

Finally, his idealogical stance would be key to him winning the Republican Nomination. These is a void this year in the Republican Presidental Candidates. Both Giuliani and McCain (even though hes really trying to hid it now) are moderate Republicans. Mitt Romney used to be a moderate republican, but he reversed his ideas sometime within the past five years. Plus, no matter how valid this point is, a lot of people will not vote for him because he is a Mormon. Kennedy was said to have solved the religious question among presidential candidates, but Mormonism is seen by many as a fringe religion.

There is a hole to fill here. If Thompson campaigns as basically a sucessor to Bush, as the standard bearer for the Right, he might have a very good chance of winning. He has all these things before he even started running his campaign. After declaring, make a few speechs, and getting a lot more coverage from everyone in the media, Thompson will really see where he is.

I know I'll be paying attention to this.